前ポストに引き続き、日本を元気にする為に、何が必要なのか、この数年考え続けてきた。
大学では、哲学だったり宗教だったりを学んだりしたが、
国民の７割以上が「無宗教」と答える日本では、
宗教・思想面からの貢献は限界があるように感じた
（といっても僕自身もあまり宗教活動だったり、布教活動にも興味がない。
加えて、自分自身も代表的な「無宗教」の一人だったりする）。
オウム真理教などの事件もあり、日本では特に「宗教」という単語自体が
ネガティブな意味を持って語られるケースが多いと感じる（主観的）。
一方で、経済の視点から見たらどうなんだろう。
そんなことを考えていたところ、ちょうどエコノミストがエッセイを募集していたので
乗っかって書いてみる事にした。期限はNov/20（土）。
プレゼンと重なってしまっていて、かなりキツかった。
加えて、元々1000字のところを、何故か2000字と間違えて書いていたので、
余計な手間＆校正作業に大変な手間．．．
ともあれ無事に終わらせて提出する事が出来ました。
ともあれ無事に終わらせて提出する事が出来ました。
お題は、「生活水準が既に高いので日本経済はこれ以上成長する必要はない」
というものでした。
私の仮説は、「日本経済が成長するかしないか」という選択肢（オプション）は既になく、
「成長しない」という前提で話を進めないとならない、というちょっとひねくれたものでした。「経済成長」の定義にもよると思うのですが、単純にGDPが年々右肩上がりで増加していくような成長は意味がない。なぜなら、日本は人口や面積などの面から考えても、既にかなり高いGDPを毎年創出しています。先日の発表で、日本が中国に抜かれ、世界第３位になりましたが、個人的な意見としては、世界第３位でもなんら問題は無いと思います。中国は日本の何倍の資源（人的、燃料など）を保持しているのでしょうか。個人的な意見では、中国に張り合って、GDP成長を目指すのではなく、GDP per Capitaを改善すべきなのではないか、という事をエッセイには書きました。
まったくの素人で恐縮ですが、転載してみます。
Introduction - Application of Systemic Thinking and Definition of Economic Growth -
When I first saw the theme of “Because living standards are so high, Japan's economy no longer needs to grow”, I had a doubt whether Japan has an option to grow or not to. It seemed to me more natural to address a question “how can Japan keep the same living standards, where economic growth cannot be expected?”. Japan has already dropped down to 3rd place in economic size, and the population is gradually, but significantly, aging.
In this essay, therefore, I will examine whether Japan’s economy will grow in next few decades. The essay proceeds in V-model fashion, which is a famous model of systems engineering. The essay will only cover left side of vee, which are planning and design phase.
Picture 1: Entity Vee
Context Analysis: Japan Current Outlook by Comparative Economy Analysis
Professor Ezra F. Vogel once wrote a book titled “Japan as number one” in 1979, stating the factors of high economic growth that the country had enjoyed for over a decade. Vogel stressed that the key success factors of Japan’s growth was in people. Japanese were more studious and eager to read books and newspapers, which combined with its management style. The rest of world has praised Japan. And, it was back in 1970s. Now the situation is gradually changing.
Today, Japan still holds the second biggest world economy in the world. With $4.9 Trillion worth of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2008*Figure 1, the country has been a well-to-do nation among others, considering the size of land property and population. As you can see in table 1, Japan’s GDP is higher in numbers by comparing the size (Germany) and population (Russia). This may indicate that Japan is a highly-productive country considering the its size of property and population. However, GDP per Capita is lower than Germany, which means that productivity per person is not so high.
Country | Size km2 | Population | GDP Mill US$ *1 | GDP per Capita US$ *2 |
Japan | 377930 | 127380000 | 5068894 | 34200 |
Germany | 357114 | 81545000 | 3338675 | 34800 |
Russia | 17098242 | 141927297 | 1231892 | 15800 |
Table 1. Comparison by size and population
Requirement Definition: “Japan as Number Three”
Considering the facts that 1). China is already bigger in economic size, and 2). Japanese population is increasingly aging, it is better to conclude that Japan should not compete with other nations by its size of economy. Being number 2 or 3 should not be a high priority as a nation. Rather shall we be able to “optimize” what is within our economy and gain our productivity and efficiency.
Concept Architecting: GDP per Capita based Economy
Many other nations have experienced this dilemma and some of them have been very successful turing the country more productive, and more “efficient”.
By “more productive” and “more efficient”, they mean that the value of GDP per Capita may be improved. GDP per Capita means that GDP divided by population. Since it is divided by population, it does not concern a gap between the richest and poorest, which is another big issue, however, GDP per Capita indicates that how much of output is per each headcount. Thus, it does not mean that economic size should be big, but it is to increase how much each can make.
Design Specification
Technology of Japan signifies that a company like Toyota, Sony, Hitachi, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, and so on. If you ever go abroad, the products and devices by these companies are seen everywhere. This is rare because other Japanese products, let me say, financial products, You will find less financial institutions doing better. However, with decreasing number of population, it is significant that financial institutions to be more powerful inside and outside of country.
Conclusion:
With resources (population) decreasing, the only way to keep the living standards to gain the productivity per each person. GDP per Capita is one measure that we can look for how much an individual contribute to national product. In order for Japan to sustain, the improvement in GDP per Capita shall be made. One of my recommendations is to strengthen financial institution (or non-manufacturing institution) of the nation since these institutions solely depends on productivity/efficiency of people; a portion that is reliable, yet large improvements are expected.
For my future studies, I would like to deepen my understanding on economics (I am from philosophy background), and would like to explore the works by Serge Latouche, a French economist who emphasizes the effectiveness of “de-growth” and its application to Japanese economy.
Country Size of Property: http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%9B%BD%E3%81%AE%E9%9D%A2%E7%A9%8D%E9%A0%86%E3%83%AA%E3%82%B9%E3%83%88