Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Saturday, March 26, 2011

The Fault Line of Leadership

After few weeks passed from the earthquake shock,
Japan still suffers its aftershocks, which unveiled many other problems.

As a Japanese entrepreneur, Daisuke Iwase wrote in Washington Post, 
The Political Fault Lines of Japan, much of faulty-ness of Japanese society
is in the system itself. In other words, it is not up to the effort of individual 
to reform the state of nation, but it is the structure, regulations, or perhaps 
mindsets redesigned in order to achieve the sustainable profitability as a country. 

As I wrote it in the last entry, the geographical advantage of Japan cannot be greater than anywhere
else on this planet. With a close face-up to the regions that are growing in next 50 years, 
I believe that there definitely a greater deed as a nation. 

But before that, we need to get ourselves together.
Nobody is raising the hands when should, even the leader. 
I mean, look, who the hell is in charge of country and for how long?
The leader of country is someone who, at least by definition, take the "full responsibility"
of country; someone who can put together opposing ideology; someone who runs it for... at
least... more than a year. 

Somehow it reminded of a Dyaln's song
I shall call it as "It Ain't Me Syndrome". As long as people conveys the political apathy, 
we will only be witness of the Asian prosperity happening on distant shore.

Although the political leadership is a sensitive and tough thing, Japan must take an initiative
as one of few developed nations in Asia. Now is the time for Japan to take a little advantage
of being sandwiched by United States and Asian Continental Nations.
Leadership can only derived from strong assertions.

Lack of assertion can become a major fault line of Japan's leadership, and its future.
However, to make Japanese people assertive is not an easy task.
Some claims it is due to the country's morality or religiosity.
Assuming that religious people are more likely to have a better sense of morality,
surprisingly, 70% of Japanese people believe that they are "non-religious".
The way I see it is Japan is simply an ethnically homogeneous nation.
I will not explain further, but this can explain a lot.

Never before the country has faced the challenges that would take a "fundamental"
transformation. If we do not take action, we will see the same problems over and over.
And it is that our each hand, and our each step that will build the shape of our future. 

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Lost in productivity

The earthquakes that have hit northern part of Japan destroyed so many things.
City, buildings, transportation, lives... the disaster not only affected the local area but Japan, 
as a country, is damaged in so many ways. 

After a week from the incident, the country is still in repair of nuclear electricity plant, 
where the majority of domestic energy had been generated. 
Rolling blackouts are scheduled daily. Companies like Toyota have not been able to 
operate their production facility. Needless to say, this is a huge loss for Japan. 
An economist essay wrote off that this is the world's worst economic loss from natural disaster 
since 1965. 
Together with the second Kobe earthquake, Japan faced such a deadly crisis 
in nearly 15 years. Not only did fallout from economic bubble, but to add an insult to injury,
Japan has been hit twice from the disasters. 

Lesson to be learned; 
Look first two and then the third. 
We can learn how much the insurance is important. 

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Keynesian and Neoclassical

Note: following contents include extremely basic stuff. So for those who are smart enough to guess what the blog is about from the title, please disgard this post and enjoy the rest of day:)

Today I want to dive into the world of economics. 
In this past few months, I affiliated with some of finance folks and 
was able to learn a very basic, yet very very interesting topic, about economics. 
I admit that my division of knowledge is limited, and therefore I may overly generalize some of key 
things. But I try. Yes, I try. 

For those who have graduated from college or same degree of academic institutions (of maybe less)
must have heard of Keynes. A great economist who had helped the government to restructure 
the great depression in 1920s. However, unless you are really really smart, or unless you are from the department of economics, I suppose only few know exactly what the idea of his was. 
Of course, some of you may be familiar with beauty contest, new deal, or "general theory~". 
But it is hard to know what the Keynes thoughts were only by themselves. 
And here is the counter part, Neoclassical, comes in. 

Neoclassical economics is sometimes argued "laissez faire" economics, since 
it is based on the perfect rationality of market. That means the price of product is at any time, 
at any give circumstances, is just right because the market is complete. 
Market is complete when demand and supply are even out. In addition, neoclassical economics
is based on the Say's law which is often summarized as "supply would create demand" as long as the price has variations. However, Say's law does not include "time constraints" and accepts the long turn
equilibrium.

Keynes argued that this is not all right. First, he stated "in the long run, we are all dead" as to oppose
Say's law. It is to say, "the long run equilibrium" is like waiting for something that is going to happen,
but now sure when and how long it takes. That is not very cool for folks that deal with money.
Secondly, Keynes exclaims that the market is not perfect. He explained this by underemployment
equilibrium (not going to details here). Thus laissez faire policy does not work here, according to
the theory.

ok, I will stop embarrassing myself for talking about something I am not fully aware.
But will continue to study and will post it up later!


Friday, February 25, 2011

This Time is Different


As a beginner of finance, I am challenged and delightfully thrilled to turn the pages over. This book has the magic like a masterpiece of any literature in kind, that when you read every part of it, you see that each connects to the main message, everything can be "regression"-able to one statement - that is, as stated in the title. 

It is an astonishing piece. I will say that aloud over and over.
I recommend this book to anyone who is interested in financial assets, 
investment, economic history, financial policy,,,the coverage of this book is 
so sound  and provides rich contents in every possible way.

But what particularly, amazing about this book, is that, it CONTAINS LOT of DATA. Believe me, you will see a lot of charts and tables, which is FASCINATING for me, a practitioner of system dynamics.

I know I am not the right person to talk something about this book, but I cannot help but myself.
Come on, you will not regret it!!



Sunday, December 19, 2010

レーガノミクスによるイノベーションの誘発?







学校の授業で、
貨幣や経済政策に関するレポートを提出することになった。
ブログでこんなことを書いてしまうのは、良くないんだろうけど、
考えをまとめるためにも、一度文章化しておきたい。
間違えている箇所もあるかと思うけれど、そのあたりはご教授いただければ幸い。
  • なぜレーガノミクスなのか。
まず、なぜレーガン政権下における税制政策に注目したのかというと、
それはつい先日の民主党による法人税減税に端を発する。これは
レーガン政権下で行われたサプライサイド経済政策を連想させるもの(であってるよね?)
であり、概要は以下4つのポイントにまとめられる(出:ウィキペディア先生)。


  1. 財政支出の大幅削減
  2. 減税
  3. 規制緩和
  4. マネーサプライのコントロール

基本的に、日本が置かれている状況とは、あまり相性が良いとは思えないんだけど、
今朝のテレビ討論で、中央大学教授が、「レーガンの政策が東海岸の古く保守的なビジネス
を引き締め、一方で西海岸ではHPなどといったITによるイノベーションから端を発した
新たな産業が生まれてきた。」と言っていたことだ。

これらのどこが、新たなイノベーションの誘発につながるのだろう?

  • イノベーションの誘発?
ウェブ上でその辺りの関係性を明らかにしてくれるような情報を一日中探していたが、
見つからなかった。思いつきで言っているわけではないと思うので、
なんとかリンクを見つけて、ファイナルレポートに載せこみたい。

ただし、調べてみてわかったことは、抑えておくべき時代背景があるということ。
それは、大きな政府から小さな政府への流れ。
そして、税制に関する累進課税制度の限界。
さらに、ケインジアン(需要サイドの経済)の失墜と、それに伴うインフレ抑制失敗。

レーガン大統領は、もともとハリウッドスターから大統領になった異色の人間で、
それが故に、政策に対する理解度などに関して疑問視する声も多かった(そのあたりは
現在のサラ・ペイリン共和党副大統領候補に通じるものがあるのかも)。

様々な資料を読むと、レーガノミクスに関する評価は真っ二つに分かれている
ところが興味深い。当然、政治的立場がリベラルか保守かという観点でも
フィルタリングがかかり、とても面白い。以下、80年代初頭、政策発表直後の
ミルトン、フリードマン対ポール・サミュエルソンの議論を転載。


〇「経済再建プログラム」の評価は? フリードマン:連邦支出削滅の詳細かつ包括的計画を高く評価する。 サミュエルソン:福祉国家を求める流れに訣別する試みであり、1920年代の不平等の 復活でインフレ問題は解決できない。
財政の均衡化は可能か? フリードマン:提案されているのは税収のカットではなく、税率の引き下げであり、 これは税収の伸びを鈍化させるだけである。歳出はより低いペースの伸ひである。規 制緩和や安定的な通貨供給により経済が活発化し、財政にプラスに働く。 サミュエルソン:「税率は引き下げるが、歳出は削減しなくてよい」とは、ラッ ファーはインチキである。非国防関係支出の大幅カットにより、予算収支をバランス させても、次に景気後退をもたらすだけだ。
連邦支出の削減は公正か? フリードマン:貧しい人々の利益を考慮している。 サミュエルソン:とても公正とは言えない。
〇減税は公正か? フリードマン:減税効果は広く行き渡る。公正の判断は客観的なものでない。 サミュエルソン:中流階層底辺以下の人々にとって公正でない。



結果として、レーガン政権が終わる頃には大幅は財政赤字を抱えていたとのこと。
政治的には意見が分かれるところだが、経済的にはお世辞にも褒められたものではなかったのではないだろうか。

  • ラッファー曲線
ラッファー曲線とは、下図のような税率0−100%で見たときの税収の最適値を求める
曲線である。ただし、非常にシンプルなため、これだけでは一概に
良し悪しを断言するのは難しい。レーガノミクスについてよく語られる。


  • 簡単なまとめ

日本にお金が無いというのは部分的な話であり、企業も、203兆円と呼ばれる
眠れる資産の使い道を必死に探しているに違いない、と考えているがどうなのだろう。
ひいては、1500兆円にもなる個人の貯蓄資産は、今後どのような道を辿るんだろう。

経済や金融に関して私はシロウトだが、経済や金融を通してみると、
いろいろと世の中のことが分かり始めてくる「感じ」がしている
(まだ全然わかっていないので、断言できないのが悔しい)。

自分の研究テーマで、イノベーションを誘発するような税政策(そんな夢のような
政策があれば)ぜひ勉強したいと考えているのでこれからも要チェック!

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Economical Growth?


前ポストに引き続き、日本を元気にする為に、何が必要なのか、この数年考え続けてきた。
大学では、哲学だったり宗教だったりを学んだりしたが、
国民の7割以上が「無宗教」と答える日本では、
宗教・思想面からの貢献は限界があるように感じた
(といっても僕自身もあまり宗教活動だったり、布教活動にも興味がない。
加えて、自分自身も代表的な「無宗教」の一人だったりする)。
オウム真理教などの事件もあり、日本では特に「宗教」という単語自体が
ネガティブな意味を持って語られるケースが多いと感じる(主観的)。

一方で、経済の視点から見たらどうなんだろう。
そんなことを考えていたところ、ちょうどエコノミストがエッセイを募集していたので
乗っかって書いてみる事にした。期限はNov/20(土)。
プレゼンと重なってしまっていて、かなりキツかった。
加えて、元々1000字のところを、何故か2000字と間違えて書いていたので、
余計な手間&校正作業に大変な手間...
ともあれ無事に終わらせて提出する事が出来ました。

お題は、「生活水準が既に高いので日本経済はこれ以上成長する必要はない」
というものでした。

私の仮説は、「日本経済が成長するかしないか」という選択肢(オプション)は既になく、
「成長しない」という前提で話を進めないとならない、というちょっとひねくれたものでした。「経済成長」の定義にもよると思うのですが、単純にGDPが年々右肩上がりで増加していくような成長は意味がない。なぜなら、日本は人口や面積などの面から考えても、既にかなり高いGDPを毎年創出しています。先日の発表で、日本が中国に抜かれ、世界第3位になりましたが、個人的な意見としては、世界第3位でもなんら問題は無いと思います。中国は日本の何倍の資源(人的、燃料など)を保持しているのでしょうか。個人的な意見では、中国に張り合って、GDP成長を目指すのではなく、GDP per Capitaを改善すべきなのではないか、という事をエッセイには書きました。

まったくの素人で恐縮ですが、転載してみます。

Introduction - Application of Systemic Thinking and Definition of Economic Growth -
When I first saw the theme of Because living standards are so high, Japan's economy no longer needs to grow”, I had a doubt whether Japan has an option to grow or not to. It seemed to me more natural to address a question “how can Japan keep the same living standards, where economic growth cannot be expected?”. Japan has already dropped down to 3rd place in economic size, and the population is gradually, but significantly, aging. 
In this essay, therefore, I will examine whether Japan’s economy will grow in next few decades. The essay proceeds in V-model fashion, which is a famous model of systems engineering. The essay will only cover left side of vee, which are planning and design phase.
Picture 1: Entity Vee
Context Analysis: Japan Current Outlook by Comparative Economy Analysis
Professor Ezra F. Vogel once wrote a book titled  “Japan as number one” in 1979, stating the factors of high economic growth that the country had enjoyed for over a decade. Vogel stressed that the key success factors of Japan’s growth was in people. Japanese were more studious and eager to read books and newspapers, which combined with its management style. The rest of world has praised Japan. And, it was back in 1970s. Now the situation is gradually changing. 
Today, Japan still holds the second biggest world economy in the world. With $4.9 Trillion worth of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2008*Figure 1, the country has been a well-to-do nation among others, considering the size of land property and population. As you can see in table 1, Japan’s GDP is higher in numbers by comparing the size (Germany) and population (Russia). This may indicate that Japan is a highly-productive country considering the its size of property and population. However, GDP per Capita is lower than Germany, which means that productivity per person is not so high.



Country
Size km2
Population
GDP Mill US$ *1
GDP per Capita US$ *2
Japan
377930
127380000
5068894
34200
Germany
357114
81545000
3338675
34800
Russia
17098242
141927297
1231892
15800

Table 1. Comparison by size and population
Requirement Definition: “Japan as Number Three”
Considering the facts that 1). China is already bigger in economic size, and 2). Japanese population is increasingly aging, it is better to conclude that Japan should not compete with other nations by its size of economy. Being  number 2 or 3 should not be a high priority as a nation. Rather shall we be able to “optimize” what is within our economy and gain our productivity and efficiency. 
Concept Architecting: GDP per Capita based Economy
Many other nations have experienced this dilemma and some of them have been very successful turing the country more productive, and more “efficient”. 
By “more productive” and “more efficient”, they mean that the value of GDP per Capita may be improved. GDP per Capita means that GDP divided by population. Since it is divided by population, it does not concern a gap between the richest and poorest, which is another big issue, however, GDP per Capita indicates that how much of output is per each headcount. Thus, it does not mean that economic size should be big, but it is to increase how much each can make. 

Design Specification
Technology of Japan signifies that a company like Toyota, Sony, Hitachi, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, and so on. If you ever go abroad, the products and devices by these companies are seen everywhere. This is rare because other Japanese products, let me say, financial products, You will find less financial institutions doing better. However, with decreasing number of population, it is significant that financial institutions to be more powerful inside and outside of country. 
Conclusion: 
With resources (population) decreasing, the only way to keep the living standards to gain the productivity per each person. GDP per Capita is one measure that we can look for how much an individual contribute to national product. In order for Japan to sustain, the improvement in GDP per Capita shall be made. One of my recommendations is to strengthen financial institution (or non-manufacturing institution) of the nation since these institutions solely depends on productivity/efficiency of people; a portion that is reliable, yet large improvements are expected.
For my future studies, I would like to deepen my understanding on economics (I am from philosophy background), and would like to explore the works by Serge Latouche, a French economist who emphasizes the effectiveness of “de-growth” and its application to Japanese economy.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

日本を元気にするために

先週の土曜日、大学院にライフネット生命 出口治明社長がいらっしゃり、
とても為になる、わかりやすい、
良いお話をしてくださった。

その後の金融に関する勉強会、懇親会にもいらっしゃった。

http://www.lifenet-seimei.co.jp/profile/message/index.html

すごい人だった。

著作なども読んでいたが、本人を目の前にすると、緊張して何を話してよいのかわからなくなってしまう。

失礼だが、還暦を過ぎてらっしゃるのにも関わらず最新のインターネットや技術
(twitterもやってらっしゃるとのこと)をチェックし、
全国津々浦々を講演して行脚するその姿には、何かやろうとしていることの
次元が違う、いや、

視点の高さがまるで違う、とそのように思った。

「若い世代に安心して子供を産んでほしい」との思いから、
ネットで生命保険を行うベンチャー企業を設立し、
132億円もの資本金を集めた。

若い世代の一人として、とても勇気づけられたし、鼓舞された。

今、日本の企業は約203兆円をポケットに隠しもっているのだそう。
だけど、そのお金がどこに行くのか、といえば、海外の事業開発とか、
既存の体制強化とか、どうしても安パイにいってしまう。
とってもuncool(クールじゃない)と思うのは自分だけだろうか。

4年前に、チェ・ゲバラに憧れて行った4ヶ月の南米放浪の旅から
日本に帰国したときに、「日本国民はみんな鬱病なのか」と思ったくらい
表情が暗くてショッキングだった。

海外から帰ってくると、確かにそう感じる。
人間の成長に例えるとわかりやすいのかもしれない。

日本は、戦後の高度経済成長で敗戦の屈辱から一気に世界第二位の経済大国まで
駆け上がった。言ってみれば、子供から大人になったようなものだ。
現に一度先進国の仲間入りをすれば、経済成長率は一ケタ、最近は1−2%
しか成長していない。人間の大人にしてみれば、大人になってからも成長していると
考えれば大したものだ、と言えるのかもしれない。
ただ、様々なチャートを見ると、これも先行き芳しくない。
この流れを変える為にも、若い世代が引っ張って行かなければダメなのだ。


Sunday, August 15, 2010

New Idea on Economics: De-Growth and the era of Post Dev.

I bumped into the book at a store titled "will it be possible to develop socially without economical growth?" in Japanese.
As I saw the title, I posed for second and gave it a thought.
"hmm, well, how a society can "develop" without economical expansion? A society is not a charity,
and everyone wants to make money at certain level (in fact, we NEED to). "

As for me, an inexpert to economics, it did not seem to work. It seemed to skip some of the fundamental
preconditions as well as the basic characteristics of human;
 People are greedy.
 People are lazy.
 People are stupid.
...well, not everything applies to all of people. But there are SOME of them always.
And Sometimes, SOME of them may really do something...

Serge Latouche, is an emeritus professor at the University of Paris-Sud.
His idea of economics talks of "de-growth". 

According to his theory, there is need to stop demanding for "growth" of economy and/or society
in current scheme, which resulted global tendency to pursuit "productivity" and "efficiency".

Since there is no end to the productivity and efficiency pursuit, and that pursuit will likely to result
the economical gap. As per the focus area of Latouche, south-north problem is a major issue.

Latouche introduces a 8R program in which to "de-grow". Here are bullets;
  1. Re-evaluate
  2. Re-conceptualize
  3. Re-structure
  4. Re-distribute
  5. Re-localize
  6. Re-duce
  7. Re-utilize
  8. Re-cycle
In short, Latouche's proposal is based on LOHAS (lifestyle of health and sustainability).
I could not see anything further than that. However, I am still pending on the judgment whether
it is a good idea or not. 


Here are some articles on line available;
Would the West actually be happier with less? The world downscaled
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/27/081.html
De-growth: an electoral stake?
http://www.inclusivedemocracy.org/journal/vol3/vol3_no1_Latouche_degrowth.htm

Anyway, I got to learn some of basic economics...to tell whether this is good or bad ):
Gotta too much going on...

BTW... Manix. I was listening to this song while reading the book... I dont know why. Still a good song though.